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Bitcoin (Read 18935 times)
moneymarketing
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Bitcoin
27th Nov, 2013 at 6:20pm
 
I think it is time to open up a discussion of bitcoin. I just heard a story today on the radio about bitcoin in what can be considered the 'main stream media'
up here in Canada, so I think it is safe to say that bitcoin is gaining traction. It seems the US government is not going to go after it at this point and the Chinese government seems to be giving it their blessing as well. I think you can get one for $1000 right now and you can also buy them in fractions.

There is a limited supply of them so I assume they will increase in value going forward. This would be another speculative buy and hold forever lottery ticket for me. I think risking $1000 at this point could easily be a $100,000 payoff in the future.

Has anybody here researched this yet? I am just entering into the exploration side of the market today and think this will be a mania market going forward
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ruicarlov
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #1 - 27th Nov, 2013 at 10:09pm
 
I think it's too risky for my taste. Growing 500% in value in months?
Things can go both ways. I'm not sure I could handle really big falls. And you bet you'll have them. Something this speculative is bound to have big ups and downs.
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #2 - 28th Nov, 2013 at 1:07am
 
moneymarketing wrote on 27th Nov, 2013 at 6:20pm:
I think risking $1000 at this point could easily be a $100,000 payoff in the future.


Holy stuff... I just checked and you're right.. I remember having looked at it one or two of weeks ago
and its value was ~$400 per BitCoin!

Is it really growing that fast?
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« Last Edit: 28th Nov, 2013 at 3:15pm by SolidSnake »  
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moneymarketing
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #3 - 28th Nov, 2013 at 9:19am
 
ruicarlov wrote on 27th Nov, 2013 at 10:09pm:
I think it's too risky for my taste. Growing 500% in value in months?
Things can go both ways. I'm not sure I could handle really big falls. And you bet you'll have them. Something this speculative is bound to have big ups and downs.


I agree. The money you use is definitely money you can afford to lose. My trading experience tells me that this is one of those that you buy, throw in the closet and don't look at for a few years. Even now though I'm thinking of holding off because I have other things to do with my investments that are working for me.

Just think, you could have bought those coins for pennies a few years ago  Cry
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ruicarlov
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #4 - 28th Nov, 2013 at 11:51am
 
Even in a buy-and-hold method, with something this volatile you should really pick a good entry point. And no mater how you look at it, this looks like a baaaaad entry point.
Not buying when something is really really popular and greatly valued is Investing 101.
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moneymarketing
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #5 - 28th Nov, 2013 at 6:37pm
 
ruicarlov wrote on 28th Nov, 2013 at 11:51am:
Even in a buy-and-hold method, with something this volatile you should really pick a good entry point. And no mater how you look at it, this looks like a baaaaad entry point.
Not buying when something is really really popular and greatly valued is Investing 101.


I don't think it has become really popular yet. I think it is just getting started
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #6 - 28th Nov, 2013 at 8:42pm
 
Take a look at the Year-to-Date chart and tell me if this last month doesn't look like a complete bubble. It's nearly a vertical line upwards. I'm not saying that in 10 years it won't be higher, but this is simply too much, too fast.
All alert signs are blaring "warning".
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #7 - 28th Nov, 2013 at 10:06pm
 
I know, I've seen the charts. I guess this is what makes a market. you have one guy on one side saying "It can't go any higher!" You have another guy on the other side saying "It can't go any lower!"

Thus you have a deal  Money Grin
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #8 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 1:28pm
 
It's nearly impossible to accurately time the market. Finding those illusory inversion points comes down to dumb luck. So the best we can do is play with probabilities. If something's very hot, it's much more likely to suffer a correction soon, once the euphoria calls down.

Remember Gold?
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #9 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 6:23pm
 
ruicarlov wrote on 29th Nov, 2013 at 1:28pm:
It's nearly impossible to accurately time the market. Finding those illusory inversion points comes down to dumb luck. So the best we can do is play with probabilities. If something's very hot, it's much more likely to suffer a correction soon, once the euphoria calls down.

Remember Gold?


Yes, you are right. Timing is difficult (not impossible) probabilities are a better trade (that is actually how I structure my trades as an active trader). That said, one of the most predictable drivers of the market is the euphoria/ fear of the crowd and mass psychology. This is essentially where the trade is for bitcoin right now. It is in its early euphoric stage. Figuring out how long this will last is where the money can be made (and lost).

You also need to understand that bitcoins are a finite entity at this point. As far as we know now they are limiting the supply. Not even gold has that benefit(due to us not knowing how much is truly out there and the paper gold trading market that counterfeits gold in a pseudo market). With that understanding, bitcoin pricing should be a direct reflection of central bank monetary printing which is also going on at a parabolic rate (just google a chart of the Fed's balance sheet or the $15 trillion that the Chinese central bank recently created in order to support their banks).

The only thing I think that could make the bitcoin price crash over the long term (short term we could see volatility) is if the bitcoin creators decide to increase the supply of bitcoins. At that moment, the confidence game that is bitcoin is broken and it will be every person for himself
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #10 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 6:30pm
 
Is there like an official bitcoin website or something?
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #11 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 7:02pm
 
moneymarketing wrote on 29th Nov, 2013 at 6:23pm:
Yes, you are right. Timing is difficult (not impossible) probabilities are a better trade (that is actually how I structure my trades as an active trader). That said, one of the most predictable drivers of the market is the euphoria/ fear of the crowd and mass psychology. This is essentially where the trade is for bitcoin right now. It is in its early euphoric stage. Figuring out how long this will last is where the money can be made (and lost).

You also need to understand that bitcoins are a finite entity at this point. As far as we know now they are limiting the supply. Not even gold has that benefit(due to us not knowing how much is truly out there and the paper gold trading market that counterfeits gold in a pseudo market). With that understanding, bitcoin pricing should be a direct reflection of central bank monetary printing which is also going on at a parabolic rate (just google a chart of the Fed's balance sheet or the $15 trillion that the Chinese central bank recently created in order to support their banks).

The only thing I think that could make the bitcoin price crash over the long term (short term we could see volatility) is if the bitcoin creators decide to increase the supply of bitcoins. At that moment, the confidence game that is bitcoin is broken and it will be every person for himself


The main issue I have with bitcoin is precisely that short-term volatility. Some good news can make it crash or rise 100%. Could you really stomach having lost 99% of your capital at one point in time?
It takes a stomach of steel not to sell it.

As for the long term, being something virtual there is indeed a risk supply can be increased beyond what is planned.
We never got alchemists that could turn lead into gold. But consider the speed at wich information technologies have progressed. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we got some "virtual alchemists" some years down the line. It's a lot easier to go beyond the "impossible" in the virtual word than in the real world.
But of course that this may never come to pass.

It's the short term that's really bugging me.
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #12 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 8:39pm
 
dansbanners wrote on 29th Nov, 2013 at 6:30pm:
Is there like an official bitcoin website or something?



It is sort of like egold whereby there are exchanger sites that trade bitcoins. We would be dealing with the exchangers
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #13 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 8:45pm
 
ruicarlov wrote on 29th Nov, 2013 at 7:02pm:
The main issue I have with bitcoin is precisely that short-term volatility. Some good news can make it crash or rise 100%. Could you really stomach having lost 99% of your capital at one point in time?
It takes a stomach of steel not to sell it.

As for the long term, being something virtual there is indeed a risk supply can be increased beyond what is planned.
We never got alchemists that could turn lead into gold. But consider the speed at wich information technologies have progressed. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we got some "virtual alchemists" some years down the line. It's a lot easier to go beyond the "impossible" in the virtual word than in the real world.
But of course that this may never come to pass.

It's the short term that's really bugging me.


I would only buy this if I were able to stomach a 100% loss going in. In other words, the money invested in this trade would not be money I couldn't afford to lose and/or sit on for at least five if not ten years. If you cannot afford to lose it all then yes, run like the wind in the other direction. I would not recommend anyone risk anything more than 1% of their money on this. The nice part is you don't have to buy a whole coin. You can buy a part of a coin or a dollar amount.

Some folks are predicting the coins could fetch $1 million each some day. That is very possible since they are just reflecting the debasement of other fiat currencies
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Re: Bitcoin
Reply #14 - 29th Nov, 2013 at 10:00pm
 
I've been reading some info on this and in case anyone is interested I'll share it :

Wiki Page

Current Rate

From a merchant's point of view also it seems really really interesting..
As I read from here there are no chargebacks with bitcoin which makes it 100% merchant friendly.

I'll consider adding it to my site's payment options if I see that more and more people tend use it..
Hmm.. I could make a poll on this and see how people will react.
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